Were we ready?
The first call for rescue from the rising floodwaters in Lafayette came in to 911 dispatchers at 6:22 a.m. Aug. 12.
Most people in the parish were just waking up. They expected to spend their Friday at work, to send their children to their second day of school. Even Lafayette Parish Mayor-President Joel Robideaux didn't expect anything but a typical south Louisiana thunderstorm when he awoke to rain that morning.
Within an hour, however, city-parish officials were working on an emergency declaration, and school officials had announced that the second day of school was canceled.
Calls to 911 for flood rescue came in nonstop from 6:45 a.m. that Friday until noon the following day. At one point, there was a backlog of 200 calls, cries for help from the community that, like their elected leader, didn't even realize there was a serious threat of flooding when falling asleep the night before.
As the devastation of the historic flooding comes into focus, the question remains:
What could we have done to prepare for this?
The warnings
At the week's start, early forecasts did not indicate Acadiana could be flooding by Friday.
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles first mentioned the area of low pressure responsible for the record rainfall in a Facebook post made at 6:35 a.m. Monday, Aug. 8. It said Acadiana would receive 1 to 3 inches of rain through Friday, but that "the heaviest rain with totals over 10 inches" would remain well to the east of the area.
The threat to the Lafayette area was better understood by Thursday.
The NWS issued a hazardous weather outlook at 6:01 a.m., posted an updated weather graphic to its Facebook page at 9:24 a.m., hosted its first emergency decision maker briefing at 2:30 p.m. and issued a flash flood watch at 3:01 p.m.
Still, none of these precautions predicted the rainfall totals Acadiana would see during the rain event that is described as a sheared inland tropical depression or monsoon depression. They indicated anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of rain from "occasional showers and thunderstorms" over several days.
"In hindsight, having seen the result and how generally unprepared we all were for it, I think we as a weather industry could have better shown the potential threats," said Donald Jones, a meteorologist with the NWS in Lake Charles. "But we were conveying it a few days ahead to the media and the officials to convey it to the general public. I think they did a good job of warning people. I remember seeing Rob Perillo conveying the threat."
Perillo, chief meteorologist for Lafayette's KATC, said he saw computer model data showing the possibility of 35 inches of rainfall over a 72-hour period for the area.
"When it's showing something like this, you almost don't want to show it on air or on social media because you don't want to cause a panic," he said.
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Perillo showed that model along with others that forecast more conservative rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches. It's nearly impossible to predict any record-breaking flood event, he said.
"We talked it up," Perillo said. "But people don't consume us in television the way they used to. They're not looking at the forecast at 10 p.m. They're looking at an 80 percent chance of rain on their phone app, and that looks the same as every other day in the summer here."
Even the smartphone alarm of a flash flood watch emergency notification often gets ignored by the residents of a rainy region.
The responses
The first flash flood warning for Lafayette Parish came in Friday at 6:35 a.m. — 13 minutes after the first 911 call for rescue in the area.
As the parish awoke to pounding rain, first responders rushed to rescue people from flooded vehicles and homes. Local journalists dove headfirst into breaking news mode. A new mayor, sheriff and council members joined other officials to declare a parish-wide emergency.
"Everyone kind of woke up to an emergency," Robideaux said. "I think it went as smoothly as an emergency operation could, especially without any kind of a warning that it was going to be happening."
The real measure of success is that there were no deaths in the area as a result of the unprecedented flooding, according to Craig Stansbury, director of the Lafayette Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness and Homeland Security.
"That we had no loss of life is really a big deal," Stansbury said. "I would say that's a result of the cooperation between all of the first responders, the community, everyone who worked very well together to accomplish the things we needed."
Everyday residents played a vital role in rescues.
Firetrucks and other high-water vehicles were flooded out during rescue missions, and extra boats from neighboring governmental agencies weren't arriving fast enough to rescue the growing number of people flooded in their homes, according to Robideaux. He describes the need for so many rescue boats during the flood as one of the biggest surprises of the emergency operation.
"Citizens stepped up," he said.
Although there was never an official call to action, locals arrived with boats to assist to their neighbors. Robideaux said he doesn't "want to think about what would have happened" had they not done so.
That good-Samaritan mentality continued as the floodwater slowly receded.
Despite their own homes being flooded, Restaurant workers served meals to flood victims. Social media prompted hundreds of volunteers to help to gut an elderly couple's house. Local businesses and Facebook pages connected those in need with those who wanted to help.
A few concerns cropped up, however. Some said early donations were turned away by the American Red Cross when local officials were in need of the same supplies to distribute to residents stranded by floodwaters.
"As it relates to the distribution of supplies," said Patrick Pannett, spokesman for the American Red Cross, "it's our mission to get everyone what they need as quickly and efficiently as possible — once safe to do so."
Pannett said the priority was on fulfilling needs at The Heymann Center shelter before focusing on airlifting supplies to other areas.
The Daily Advertiser opened its office as a donation site early Sunday to connect stranded residents in Youngsville and southern Lafayette Parish with the water, food, diapers and other immediate necessities. "Spanky" Arsement, a church leader who mobilized volunteers to work with law enforcement and the Louisiana National Guard, said they may not have had anything to deliver to those in need without the assistance.
“The official relief agencies play an important role in helping people recover from a natural disaster,” said Judi Terzotis, president and publisher of The Daily Advertiser. “However, when there’s an immediate need for basic necessities, we all have to do what we can.
“While plans were being made for the long-term support of flood victims, the Advertiser was happy to open its doors to help connect donors with flood victims who desperately needed water and other supplies immediately. It’s at the core of our mission to provide solutions for our community.”
The lessons
The flood has immediately taught us the importance of keeping an emergency survival kit on hand stocked with the same items needed during a hurricane. It's taught us that flood insurance is a smart investment even for those who aren't in a flood zone. It's helped us realize that everyday people can be every bit as important in a natural disaster as those with official designations.
It will take time to learn other lessons.
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It's too soon to fully determine the effectiveness of the city-parish emergency preparedness plan that called upon the help of numerous agencies to warn, inform, rescue, shelter, feed, clothe and assist the residents of Lafayette Parish.
"We'll have that discussion certainly in the next month to sort of recap everything and learn how we can improve," Robideaux said.
Robideaux's first thought is that emergency high-water vehicles can't be relied on as heavily during a flood as expected. Instead, investing in more boats might be something to consider.
But he and others continue to stress that it's impossible to successfully plan for the level of rainfall seen during the event.
Looking critically at where houses are being developed in the parish could be an option, but Robideaux cautioned that there's a fine line between a local government being prepared and over-regulating.
"Really, unless you made it look like Grand Isle and said, 'Look, just to be safe, we're going to put everybody 15 feet up on stilts,' you're not going to be able to avoid a situation like we just went through because it was an unprecedented situation," he said.
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The National Weather Service is still gathering data to determine how this flood compares to historical weather events.
"Lafayette rainfall averages indicate so far that this is somewhere between a 100- and 200-year event," Jones said. "But it's important to understand that it's just as likely to happen a month from now as it is to happen 100 years from now. These are just averages."
To better prepare people for natural disasters of this nature, Jones suggests the weather service and media outlets rethink how they are sharing information.
"Let's make it more than a forecast," he said. "Here's what it actually means. It's not just about not going outside over the weekend. It's about there being a direct threat to you and your property."
Perillo left his own flooded home last weekend to keep the public updated during the crisis. He's one of many who is spending this weekend gutting his house.
"I just want to make it through the next two months of hurricane season because there is probably going to be more storms we'll need to talk about," Perillo said. "It breaks my heart to even say that right now."
With a little chuckle, he added, "Maybe I won't improve my house until Oct. 1st."