WWL: Future of Invest 99 uncertain
Invest 99 remains poorly organized Friday. It remains a broad area of low pressure that is associated with a tropical wave located near Eastern Cuba.
This low is producing only a few showers and storms to the south and east of the of the center. This system continues to fight wind shear and dry air. Conditions are not expected to get any better today as it moves to the west around 13 mph. If it continues to move to the west, it could get ripped up over the mountains of Cuba. Also, the shear would have to relax for it to develop further. As of this morning, it does not look like this will happen today. NHC is giving is a low chance for development in 2 days and a medium chance in 5 days.
The low is forecast to continue on a W-NW track this weekend, and there is a chance it could get into the Straits of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical wave. If it does get into the Gulf, then conditions could be a little more favorable for development late this weekend and early next week. However, the forecast models are still not in agreement, and there is a large spread in possible tracks for Invest 99. As of this morning, the Euro (ECMWF) model now has only a weak system that tracks north into the Bahamas and stays out a sea. The GFS model now shows it remaining weak, but it does take it into the Northern Gulf. Therefore, until there is an actual closed center of circulation, the forecast models will continue to have a hard time showing where the system will go.
Needless to say, there is still plenty of uncertainty of where it could go. This forecast will continue to change each day, so stay aware of the changes. Only trust meteorologists and reliable sources for updates on this system!
Now is a good time to be prepared just in case it does develop into something in the Gulf of Mexico. Have a plan of what to do and where to go.