Wisconsin experienced its warmest winter on record. But that doesn't mean it's time to plant your garden yet.
Laura SchulteMADISON - Wisconsin has undoubtedly experienced some strange weather this winter, with warmer temperatures coming earlier than usual, just in time for another cold snap to follow behind.
For the most part, the winter season was downright balmy, with only one small stretch of negative temperatures in January, making it the warmest on record for Wisconsin, said Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin’s state climatologist and the assistant director at the University of Wisconsin Madison’s Center for Climatic Research. The El Nino effect — which carries warm air from the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean across the U.S. — is largely to blame for the warmth.
"It was a full two degrees warmer than the previous record, which is a huge amount," he said. "We had the warmest December on record. We had the warmest February on record and we had the 10th warmest January on record. So that really is extreme in terms of consistent warmth over a whole season."
But the warm winter and seemingly early spring doesn't mean plants are going to have an easier time this year, or that you'll be able to plant your garden a month early, experts said. In fact, it could end up damaging some crops.
Perennials that may have started to grow and even bloom in some places likely will be fine, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub.
"Daffodils and some other flowers are a bit more cold-hardy. So they won't be thrilled with the snow and depending on how heavy the snow is it could weigh down on them," he said. "But they may be able to survive."
Most agricultural fields haven't yet been planted and fields with cover crops like alfalfa haven't sprouted. But with the warm temperatures, other crops, such as apples, could be at risk.
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If the temperatures warm enough to break apple trees out of dormancy and another cold snap follows, the tree could be damaged.
"They're still at a point where they're still fairly cold-hardy, but too much farther and we're going to be getting to a point where they will not be cold-hardy and freezes will probably start damaging them," he said.
Todey said there still could be a risk for plants while the state remains on the cooler side through the end of March before a rebound of warmer temperatures in April.
"We'll probably see progress of more plants that then could be at risk or freeze," he said. "It's just about how severe that is."
Vavrus said Wisconsin growers have already experienced problems in previous winters that had warm spells in early spring broken by a bitter freeze. Last year, Wollersheim Winery near Prairie du Sac lost many of its red grape plants.
"We had such an early warm spring, the first half of April got in about 80 degrees for a few days, and the vines developed too quickly," he said. "And then we flipped back to winter and had a cold, snowy second half of April. And as a result, a lot of the plants were damaged or destroyed by the cold."
Vavrus said this winter and early spring should serve as a lesson of what climate change may bring.
"As strange as this winter has been, it serves as a learning experience for us because it gives us a sense of what might the future portend," he said.
"What can we learn from this winter for instance, if we have more winters with low snow cover and little ice cover and potentially these early warm-ups that spur development early in plants and crops? What does that mean? What did we learn from this winter that we might be able to use this knowledge to help us adapt to the warmer future climates?"
Drought conditions last year could carry over in dry soils
While temperatures may have been the most recognizable difference from winters past, precipitation is also now a concern with the planting season quickly approaching.
Last summer brought dry, drought-like conditions for much of the state, impacting crops and worrying farmers.
This winter's lack of snow and rain could also be a problem because there isn't much moisture left in the soil to help seeds grow after planting. The ground also didn't freeze solid, as it does during colder winters, leading to evaporation at the top of the soil.
"Our soil didn't get a lot of benefit this winter," Todey said. "That's probably one of our bigger concerns right now is what's our soil moisture situation and how much more moisture are we going to get into our soil moisture profile before the start of the year?"
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Spring could still produce plenty of rain, but heavy storms can create mud on fields or wash seeds away. Producers may be able to plant a bit easier with drier soils, but rain will be needed to ensure growth.
"We end up being very reliant on regular rainfalls and that seems to be becoming more of a problem for us," he said. "We don't get as regular rainfalls and we go through longer dry periods."
Vavrus said it's hard to predict what this spring and summer will hold for precipitation in Wisconsin.
"We really don't have a very good handle on what's going to happen in terms of rainfall in the next few months," he said. "We really don't know what to expect, because things can change so quickly. It's possible that we'll turn very wet again and then help make up for this soil moisture deficit."
Laura Schulte can be reached at leschulte@jrn.com and on X at @SchulteLaura.