Michigan's QB battle features experience, but will there be progress?

(NOTE: This is part of a week-long series examining Michigan’s 2017 position groups.)

Narratives can be tricky and dangerous.

As Michigan slumped to three losses in its final four games to close the once-promising 2016 season, fans and onlookers began to search for reasons why it all slipped. And, as is often the case, the easiest answer became a popular scapegoat.

Wilton Speight started his college football career as a full-time starter with nine straight wins. Then he played poorly at Iowa, hurt his shoulder and the offense went downhill from there. Naturally, some finger-pointing began and some fans wondered whether or not Speight was the guy for this team moving forward.

If in-season narratives are tricky and dangerous. Off-season narratives can, at times, be downright ridiculous. Wishing and hoping takes over for fact-based results and realities. Which, eventually, turns into something completely different.

This, in a nutshell, was the external talk outside the walls of Schembechler Hall this summer when it came to Michigan’s quarterbacks. Speight, some said, wasn’t good enough. Untested redshirt freshman, others hoped, was the new guy who was surely going to be the answer to all prayers. John O’Korn, some thought, wasn’t even a factor at this point.

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Fortunately for realistic football observers, there’s a thing called “fall camp,” where all the “what ifs” turn into answers.

“John and Wilton have really stepped up,” Harbaugh said earlier this month. “I think they’ve created a little bit of separation and they’re battling now.

“We’re keeping a very close eye on it and it’s progressing well.”

That progression will likely continue right up until the Wolverines take the field on Sept. 2 against Florida in Texas. Meantime, let’s get into where U-M’s quarterback room sits entering 2017.

2016 recap

One of the reasons why Harbaugh continued to harp on what a “good spot” Speight was in entering camp was his experience. Not just in-game, on the field. But his experience with these preseason quarterback battles. In 2015, he lost – falling behind Jake Rudock early and never recovering. In 2016, he won – battling all year long with O’Korn before narrowly edging him to start the year.

He knows what it takes to survive this. He understands what Harbaugh wants from his starters: Efficiency, ball security and being able to create something when everything else around you is falling apart.

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Speight may have had his accuracy issues at times last season (more on that in a second), but overall, his body of work as a first-year starter was more than solid. If you take everything into account, it looked pretty darn strong at times. Consider these Big Ten ranks: No. 3 in passer rating (139.76), No. 2 in yards per attempt (7.7), No. 2 in completion rate (61.6%) and No. 5 in yards per game (211.5).

Michigan finished No. 4 nationally in percentage of possessions ending in a turnover (6.9) and No. 21 nationally in percentage of pass plays resulting in an interception (1.8). And while Speight did have some issues late in the season with the deep ball, he did – believe it or not – hold the highest passer rating in the Big Ten, per Pro Football Focus, when it came to targets of 20 yards or more (113.8).

He kept the offense on schedule (Michigan faced an average of third-and-6.04 yards last season, No. 6 nationally), he avoided sacks with his feet even when his line wasn’t cooperating (just 1.5 sacks per game) and he was far from a turnover machine.

Elite? Probably not. More than serviceable? Yes. Room for improvement? Absolutely.

U-M lost three games by a combined five points last season. And in each one of those games, Speight had his problems. He missed open receivers downfield at Iowa. He had costly turnovers against Ohio State. He was a mess throughout the first half in the Orange Bowl. At the same time, his offensive line and running game completely failed him in all three of those losses – averaging just 92.7 yards per game in that stretch.

Make no mistake, though: He was the best quarterback on the team. O’Korn started one game due to Speight’s shoulder injury and he went 7 of 16 for 59 yards (it did snow, though). Peters, meanwhile, redshirted.

2017 outlook

Peters made this thing interesting earlier this year after he carried over a strong close to the 2016 practice season with some impressive throws in spring ball. When protections held and Peters was allowed to firm pocket to throw from, his arm looked surgical. At the same time, Speight always seemed to have an advantage over him when plays broke down.

The veteran starter handled blitzes better. He made more plays on the run. He knew when to cut bait and when to take a chance. Peters – who still has not played a game as a college quarterback – is still learning all of this.

O’Korn’s biggest issues a year ago were some of the problems that began to haunt him at Houston: ball security. Michigan’s offense cannot afford to live with turnovers. Speight took better care of the football last off-season and kept things on schedule. Thus, he was the starter. He can, of course, leap frog Speight and become the guy this year – but we’re probably going to have to see that to believe it.

Peters has been the most interesting option throughout this process because he’s raw and super talented. His arm talent may be better than any other quarterback on the roster. But the rest of his game has yet to develop against live action. Command of the huddle, voice on the field, improvisation that doesn’t result in a disaster. This stuff comes in time. And Speight, right now, probably has better command of it than anyone else.

Predictions

Projected starter: Wilton Speight

Reserves: John O’Korn, Brandon Peters

The skinny: Speight’s been the safest bet throughout this process and is still the popular pick to win this job. Same time, U-M has to find a way to get Peters on the field at some point this season – whether it be in mop-up duty or special package duty here or there.

Harbaugh will have to see what Peters can do in a live, uncontrolled environment sooner or later.

O’Korn’s made a push, there’s no doubt. And we’ll see if it’s enough. He’s a valued member of Michigan’s football team right now and will be even if he’s a backup once again. He’s a respected player in the locker room and he’ll be looked to as a team leader this season, especially with an offense that’s so young.

The gap between No. 3 and the rest, right now, is wide. Dylan McCaffrey’s a talented true freshman – but he’s just a freshman. He’s as sure a bet to redshirt as any player on the team. He’ll have his chance to prove what he can do during bowl practices and next spring. Alex Malzone is entering his third season with the team and, at this point, it’s starting to get pretty late for him. If he’s going to make any type of move up this depth chart, it may be now or never.

If Speight does in fact win this job again, he’s going to have to make a leap this year. The accuracy issues that crept up late last year and again in spring have to fade away. He’s dropped weight, he’s lighter on his feet, he’s a year older and wiser – it’s time for him to become more than what he was a year ago. Harbaugh isn’t known for a quick trigger finger at quarterback. But if a guy isn’t winning and making plays that are costing a team games, he’s never been afraid to make a move.

Experience is probably enough to win him this job. But it won’t be enough, on its own, for him to keep it. 

Contact Nick Baumgardner: nbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @NickBaumgardner. Download our Wolverines Xtra app for free on Apple and Android devices!