Five story lines that will shape NASCAR's second half
Five story lines that will help shape the second half of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, which begins Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:
The true value of playoff points will be realized: It’s apparent that drivers have discussed the new points system a great deal because they often recite the same concepts, if not verbiage. As race and stage wins have distributed playoff points – the greatest amount to Martin Truex Jr. – drivers have become increasingly cognizant of the value of winning the regular-season title and attaining the 15 bonus points that come with the feat. They are citing the value as “like three wins” in the regular season.
The second-place driver will receive 10 points, with the other top-10 finishers rewarded with descending values. The weight of the playoff points is becoming increasingly concrete in the competitors' minds. All of those points carry over into each round of the playoffs in which a driver remains title-eligible. But their real value will not be fully appreciated until the field has made a first run through this latest version of the title format. As the second half begins, playoff points leaders are: Truex (28), Jimmie Johnson (16), Brad Keselowski (13) and current regular-season points leader Kyle Larson (13).
Joey Logano’s title pursuit: The Team Penske driver should be a lock for the playoffs, having won at Richmond International Raceway in April. However, his No. 22 Ford failed a post-race laser inspection station test and NASCAR ruled his victory was “encumbered” -- worthless as a playoff voucher.
Logano’s performance has cratered since – impacted by three DNFs – as he’s posted just one top-five and two top-10s in the subsequent nine races, falling from fifth to 12th in points. He’s led just 17 laps since Richmond after pacing the field for 240 in the first nine events. Adding to Logano's predicament should he remain winless is there are drivers who have won that remain outside the top 16 in points. So Ryan Newman (17th) and Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon (20th) will take playoff slots from winless drivers within the top 16. Logano currently is outside that transfer window.
MORE COVERAGE:
NASCAR: Five surprises from the first half of the 2017 Cup season
Richmond track changes name, plans $30 million update
Joey Logano came up with the most thrilling gender reveal for NASCAR fans
Shutout? It seems highly unlikely that former series champion Kyle Busch (four victories in 2016), Denny Hamlin (three) and Matt Kenseth (two) will finish the season winless after helping Joe Gibbs Racing collectively oppress the series and power Toyota to its first manufacturer’s title last season. Busch, in particular, has been close numerous times, leading 100 or more laps in four races this season and hovering third in points even though there have been five multi-race winners.
The question is whether the supposed inevitability of a breakout win for talented drivers on a resourceful team yields to the crunch of pressure – particularly for Hamlin and Kenseth – as the regular season spools away.
Exit music: Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s 2016 regular season lasted just 18 races because of a recurrence of concussions. Now healthy and reinstalled in the No. 88 Chevrolet, he embarks on the last half of his final season as a full-time Cup driver. As of now, his performance hasn’t hinted of the type of farewell procession Jeff Gordon (2015) and Tony Stewart (2016) earned with wins in their final seasons. He’s 21st in points with one top-5 and four top-10s. The pursuit of a final playoff qualification and the desire for fans and promoters to laud him one last time will be concurrent and constant story lines.
Who replaces Earnhardt? Earnhardt told USA TODAY Sports that he believes a driver needs two foundation-building seasons in the second-tier Xfinity Series before ascending to a full-time Cup ride. That would eliminate 19-year-old Hendrick Motorsports prospect William Byron from contention for the No. 88 seat in Earnhardt’s estimation. However, he readily concedes that decision is not his and instead is left for team owner Rick Hendrick and sponsors. Earnhardt professed aloud last week that Kenseth – who is being replaced at JGR by Erik Jones in 2018 – will find solid work. Kenseth’s veteran presence could buoy Hendrick until Byron is ready or another option opens as Kasey Kahne continues to face speculation over his future amid another underwhelming season at HMS.
Follow James on Twitter @brantjames
