Early look: What to like about No. 19 Louisville in 2017
Each week, USA TODAY Sports will give a more detailed look at the teams listed on our early top 25 for the 2017 college football season.
Up next: No. 19 Louisville. With Lamar Jackson in tow, Louisville aims for the top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference and a trip to the College Football Playoff. But is that a realistic goal?
Why No. 19?
1. Lamar Jackson. After a Heisman-winning sophomore campaign, the question becomes how Jackson can improve — and he can improve, believe it or not, particularly in his ability to read defenses and deliver as a more traditional pocket-passing quarterback. Consider his final four games of last season: Jackson was still a defensive coordinator’s nightmare, but that 1-3 finish revealed the need for balance under center. Jackson was outstanding in 2016, but he should be — and needs to be, if the Cardinals have eyes on more than the Citrus Bowl — better this fall.
2. The process. That one embarrassing year with the Atlanta Falcons aside, Bobby Petrino’s coaching tenures tend to follow a script: early struggles, signs of bloom, explosive breakthrough, championship contention. Louisville has gone through at least the first two stages; last year could be viewed as a breakthrough, though the Cardinals made no great progress in the win column. In general, however, it’s abundantly clear that Petrino has this program pointed in the direction of Clemson and Florida State — the two ACC frontrunners standing in Louisville’s path to the Playoff.
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3. Early season schedule. There might never be a good time to face Clemson, even at home. For Louisville, however, it’s better to get the Tigers early, on Sept. 16, as the defending national champions shift to a new starting quarterback. Better yet, Louisville draws North Carolina on Sept. 9, giving the Cardinals a likely edge as the Tar Heels look to retool behind a new cast. Wins in those two games would make Louisville a national contender before the end of October.
Why not higher?
1. Defense. Last year’s unit was wildly underrated, with just two blips — Clemson and Kentucky, both losses — amid an otherwise outstanding run through the regular season. That coordinator Todd Grantham is off to Mississippi State is a concern, even if his replacement, former MSU coordinator Peter Sirmon (the two switched jobs), brings a high coaching IQ to his new position. Combine a new voice with some personnel changes, most notably at linebacker, and you have a group that must again prove itself during those September matchups against UNC and Clemson.
2. Offensive line. The quarterback can’t do it alone. Louisville must address a number of missing skill-player pieces from a season ago, including the top three receiving targets and starting running back Brandon Radcliff. These aren’t fatal changes. And with a number of impressive underclassmen set to assume larger roles, including junior receiver Jaylen Smith, perhaps the new cast outperforms their predecessors. That wouldn’t come as a surprise, at least.
Of far greater concern is the middling play of the offensive line. Those sack-allowed totals — the nation’s worst at 3.6 per game — are inflated somewhat by Jackson’s mobility; just as he’d run out of trouble, sometimes he’d extend plays with his legs before being tackled for loss. But new line coach Mike Summers will have his hands full. Good thing he’s one of the best in the country.
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3. Solving Jackson’s riddle. This may be a stretch — he did end up running away with the Heisman, ripping through a number of elite programs and defenses along the way. But as noted above, Jackson’s season ended with a whimper, with as many interceptions as touchdowns in losses to Houston, rival Kentucky and LSU. Based on that evidence, three teams have provided a blueprint for stopping Jackson — and for stopping Louisville. That’s a concern heading into the spring, if not one that necessarily eliminates the Cardinals as strong ACC contenders.
Biggest games
►At North Carolina, Sept. 9
►Vs. Clemson, Sept. 16
►At Florida State, Oct. 21
Three players to know
1. RB Jeremy Smith. He’s not the only contender for the lead job at running back. But Smith’s experience and past production in a secondary role gives him the inside track for a substantial increase in touches.
2. CB Jaire Alexander. He gets almost zero national recognition, but the ACC knows the score: Alexander can be an elite defender on the outside.
3. DB C.J. Avery. Enrolling early gives the four-star true freshman an outstanding shot at immediate playing time, if not a starting role, along the back end of Louisville’s defense.
PROJECTING THE PRESEASON TOP 25
