NFL

Colin Kaepernick's free agency wait is complicated, but team fit matters

Tom Pelissero
USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) after a game against Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

PHOENIX – The plan for Colin Kaepernick in free agency was always to be patient.

There was no pressing need to for him to take just any job, no matter how much – to borrow a phrase from Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh – “intellectually lazy” discussion about the cause of his unemployment that would’ve saved us all.

Absolutely, Kaepernick’s high-profile decision to kneel for the national anthem last season and subsequent activism factors into the conversation for teams. For all the great work he’s doing in communities – including a plan in progress to donate $1 million to charities – the possibility he might tick off sponsors and fans by showing up one day in police pig socks or a Fidel Castro shirt or whatever is bound to make some people uncomfortable, particularly if he’s a backup.

But at no point in conversations with a handful of NFL general managers, among others, this week at the league meetings did I get the sense there’s a plot here to keep Kaepernick out, or even that lots of individual owners are overruling their football people’s desires to bring him in.

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Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera referenced Kaepernick’s “big price tag” at the NFC coaches breakfast Wednesday, but there’s no reason to think he’s pricing himself out of work either. If Kaepernick has a shot to start, Robert Griffin III’s two-year, $15 million deal with the Cleveland Browns last year is a logical baseline. If not, the price obviously would drop closer to what other No. 2s are getting, but there are still too many unsettled situations to take that type of deal now.

What I heard most frequently sounded a lot like what I heard when the San Francisco 49ers were shopping Kaepernick a year ago, and even before that, when Kaepernick was on top of his game and helping the 49ers reach consecutive NFC title games and a Super Bowl – long before he landed on the cover of Time.

The scouting report has long been that Kaepernick is most dangerous when the play breaks down. A GM once told me his team did a study showing that, seven out of every 10 times, Kaepernick made the first rusher miss. If he could slip out, the angles would change and he’d kill you. Keep Kaepernick in the pocket, though, and he’d struggle. He’d lock onto one target. He has a big arm, but he never has been the most accurate passer.

Harbaugh’s brother, Jim, did a sensational job covering up Kaepernick’s weaknesses and designing an offense to maximize his strengths, with help from a diverse run game featuring a healthy dose of zone read, a good o-line and a great defense. Then, the 49ers parted ways with Harbaugh after the 2014 season, setting up the one-and-done tenures of Jim Tomsula (with Geep Chryst running the offense) and Chip Kelly.

“We’ve really seen (Kaepernick) at his best. We've seen him to be a very difficult factor to deal with,” Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday. “The last couple years, the (49ers) offense has been changing. They've had new coaches and all kinds of stuff, and I don't think he’s found that level that he found when he was with Jim, that they were really on it. But it’s there to be had.”

The implication there is obvious: Kaepernick needs someone else to commit to running his type of offense. And that’d be a departure for a lot of teams, who also would have to take play style into consideration when looking at Kaepernick as a possible backup.

The tape wasn’t great last season after Kaepernick took over in Week 6 for Blaine Gabbert, but it wasn’t horrible either (even if the 49ers were). He completed 59.2% of his passes for 2,241 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions despite being underweight following several offseason surgeries. Word is Kaepernick has put some of that weight back on now.

Remember this, too: he’s not the only QB still looking for a job. Tony Romo’s situation with the Dallas Cowboys seem to be plugging up the market for the jobs that remain. Jay Cutler remains a free agent. This isn’t regarded as a particularly good or deep QB class and might not produce an immediate starter.

“I hope the guy gets a chance to play,” Carroll said of Kaepernick. “I hope all those guys – it’s a really good group of quarterbacks kind of hanging out there right now. It might all go kind of in a flurry. When somebody gets spotted, then I think the next guy and the next guy will go.”

For now, it’s worth continuing to wait before jumping to conclusions about why it might have taken awhile for Kaepernick to find his home.

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