How NFL scouts rank the quarterbacks in the 2017 NFL draft
Information used from scouts from around the NFL to assess and rank the 2017 quarterback class. All asked to remain anonymous for competitive reasons.
1. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
One-year starter who completed 68% of his passes for 3,748 yards and 30 TDs with six interceptions for an 8-5 Tar Heels team in 2016. Sat most of previous two years behind non-prospect Marquise Williams, but there were some politics involved in that. Most consistent and accurate passer in this class. Size (6-foot-2, 222 pounds) is good enough. Solidly built. Big arm. Good release. Showed athletic ability with good showing at the combine in 40-yard dash (4.67 seconds), 20-yard shuttle (4.25). Not a typical alpha male leader who will take over a room. Quieter, somewhat bland personality (think Eli Manning), but teammates love him. Good note-taker who has shown recall in meetings. Up to speed mentally, even though UNC offense wasn’t particularly complex. Like most, has operated primarily from shotgun. “You see him going through progressions,” an NFC personnel director said. “The thing that throws you off a bit is he’s really a one-year starter. A little bit about the leadership – is he a guy that can step in a huddle and take over and be the man, have the respect of a 28-year-old veteran? Just based on tape, he’s the most consistent.”
Projection: Top-15 pick
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Got his shot as a true freshman in 2014 following an injury to fellow draft prospect Davis Webb and never gave back the starting job. Finished career with 11,252 yards and 93 touchdowns with 29 interceptions on 63.5% passing in coach Kliff Kingsbury’s wide-open attack. Led Division I FBS passers with 5,052 yards in 2016. Ran for another 22 TDs. Was 13-16 as starter. QBs from that offense have struggled in the NFL, but he’s not a typical system QB. Well-built at 6-2, 225. Elite arm. Ran a 4.8-season 40 and led all QBs in 20-yard shuttle (4.08) at combine. Raw. Has a ton to learn about coverages, etc., but makeup suggests he has the aptitude to do so. Smart. Competitive. Big personality. Magnetic on the field, too. Has shown he can make every throw there is, to every area of the field, from every platform. Gambler. Hasn’t played much under center. Footwork all over the place. Probably most talented with highest ceiling in the class, but also hardest to project. Boom or bust. “He’s got a ton of flair, a ton of just backyard football in him,” an AFC scout said. “He’s definitely a playmaker. He never has the same play twice. Nothing he does is really on-schedule in terms of how NFL coaches usually are used to seeing it, but he makes a lot of plays and throws for a lot of yards.”
Projection: First round
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3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Two-time Davey O’Brien Award winner as nation’s best QB and Heisman Trophy finalist. After injury-riddled true freshman year in 2014, led Tigers to 28-2 record and consecutive national championship games against Alabama, including a win in January. Recovered from rough start as junior in 2016 to play his best down the stretch. Threw for 10,168 yards, 90 touchdowns and 32 interceptions on 67.4% passing in Clemson’s high-percentage spread offense. Ran for another 1,934 yards and 26 TDs. Adequate size (6-2, 221), though not the biggest build. Impressed at combine showing session and drills, including 4.66-second 40-yard dash. Strong enough arm. Mobile. Plenty smart. Has won big games and played big in them. Makeup is impeccable. Never too high, never too low. Has a presence about him. Another shotgun QB. Accuracy seems to be the primary concern about how his skill set will transfer. Comes from a one-read, tempo type of system. Many throws are predetermined. Will force some balls and let it fly high at times. Rarely asked to read the defense and go through progressions. Some scouts worry about field vision. “He’s such an alpha male, he’s such a winner, he’s such a leader that people are overlooking the inconsistencies in the way he throws the football,” an NFC executive said. “At midseason, people would never have said he was a first-round pick. The red flag to me is inconsistent accuracy and he throws a lot of balls into coverage, and there’s the (32) interceptions.”
Projection: First round
t-4. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Started most of the past two seasons, completing 60.7% of his passes for 5,805 yards and 47 touchdowns with 19 interceptions. Ran for another 18 TDs. Was playing like a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick late in 2015 – when he took over for an injured Malik Zaire against Virginia, threw a game-winning TD pass and won eight of his first nine starts as a redshirt freshman – and early in 2016. Struggled last season and got into a mechanical funk as the Fighting Irish stumbled to 4-8 with a young offense around him. Big, thick guy (6-4, 233) with huge 9 7/8-inch hands. Plenty of arm. Accuracy and ball placement are questions, but can spin it as well as anyone when he’s on. Has spent recent months trying to become more consistent in his footwork and not over-striding. Improved from poor combine throwing session to pro day. Very intelligent. Knows football. Had uncommon authority to adjust protections and change plays in Irish offense, which might make him more ready than the other top QBs to play as a rookie if needed. Primarily played from the shotgun. Teams have done a lot of work on his leadership, drive, how important football is to him, etc. Some find it hard to warm up to his personality. Exceptionally confident. “He transitions his weight. He drives the football. He’s not a guy that will just blow you away with his accuracy, put it that way,” an AFC scout said. “There’s some games where he’s just completely his arm and there’s no feet. I think he is (smart). He just hasn’t played enough.”
Projection: First/second round.
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t-4.Davis Webb, California
Played a lot his first two years at Texas Tech, but got hurt in 2014 and Kingsbury rode the hot hand with Mahomes. Left for Cal as a graduate transfer last spring, was named a captain and threw for 37 touchdowns in his only season with the undermanned Bears, who went 5-7. In all, completed 61.4% of his passes for 9,852 yards and 83 touchdowns with 34 interceptions. Prototypical frame (6-foot-5, 229 pounds), good athletic ability and relentless work ethic make him intriguing. Top-five finish among QBs in all major drills at the combine. Must overcome track record of shotgun-heavy “Air Raid” quarterbacks, but has better size and stronger arm than most of them. Sporadic accuracy is biggest question. Has tweaked mechanics working with former NFL coach Jim Zorn and it doesn’t look real natural yet, though he threw it well in bad weather at his pro day. Normally has a freewheeling release. Needs to clean up his decision-making and footwork. Coach’s son. Football junkie. Can come across like another coach. Several scouts said his tape and traits compare favorably to last year’s No. 1 overall pick from Cal, Jared Goff. “Goff has maybe quicker feet and better release. Davis has a stronger arm. Goff would be more accurate. Davis would be a much better worker, much smarter, better leader, enjoy the process,” an AFC scout said. “I think Davis puts the ball on the ground a little bit too much and he forces probably a little bit too much.”
Projection: Late first/second round.
6. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Two-year starter for the Panthers after transferring from Tennessee, where he was benched in each of his two starts, the latter in favor of fellow draft prospect Joshua Dobbs. At Pitt, completed 61.1% of his passes for 5,142 yards and 47 touchdowns with 15 interceptions and was 14-10 as the starter. Best prospect from an under-center, pro-style offense in this class. Understands the concepts coming in. Game manager type. Stands 6-2, 226 with 9 7/8-inch hands. Above-average arm. Smart. Good decision-maker.
Projection: Second/third round.
7. Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee
Started 35 games for the Volunteers (23-12 record). Completed 61.5% of his passes for 7,138 yards and 53 touchdowns with 29 interceptions. Ran for another 2,160 yards and 32 TDs. True dual threat. Very good athlete at 6-3, 216. Was 23-12 as starter. Aerospace engineering major. Intelligence, character, leadership all top-notch. Steady presence. Decision-making needs to improve. Doesn’t always see the full field. Inconsistent and unpolished passer. Accuracy is just OK.
Projection: Third round.
8. Brad Kaaya, Miami
Three-year starter who won the job as a true freshman. Completed 60.6% of his passes for 9,968 yards and 69 touchdowns with 24 interceptions. Was 22-16 as starter. Tall (6-4, 214) pocket passer with athletic limitations. Banged up last season, which may have exacerbated lack of mobility. Just kind of average all-around. Will flash an arm. Can manage a game, but also will get spastic under pressure. Needs to develop physically. Projection: Third to sixth round.
9. C.J. Beathard, Iowa
Two-year starter who appeared in 41 career games. Completed 58.1% of his passes for 5,562 yards and 40 touchdowns with 19 interceptions. Was 21-7 as starter. Played in a pro-style offense. Adequate size (6-2, 219). Tough. Plays with moxie. Solid arm strength and mechanics. Accuracy and consistency are issues. Limited athlete.
Projection: Fourth to sixth round.
10. Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Graduate transfer from Oklahoma, where he led an upset over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl as a freshman but later lost the job to Baker Mayfield. Finished college career completing just 55.5% of his passes for 5,856 yards and 44 touchdowns with 26 interceptions, including 53.3%-2,432-19-7 last year with the Aggies. Ran for another 19 TDs. Lacks ideal height (6-1, 219). Lit up the combine, leading QBs in the 40 (4.54), vertical (35½ inches), broad jump (10-5) and 60-yard shuttle (11.28). Athletic ability alone should get him a look.
Projection: Sixth round to undrafted.
Special exception: Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
Started college career at Clemson but was dismissed in 2014 for conduct detrimental to the team after a confrontation with coaches at halftime of the spring game. Transferred to a community college and was arrested in a nightclub fight before enrolling at Ole Miss, where he threw for 6,858 yards and 50 touchdowns with 21 interceptions over two seasons before suffering his second torn ACL. Barred from the combine over past issues. Ruptured tendon in throwing wrist cut short pro day and led to surgery this month. Won’t be able to throw until July. It’s always something. Nephew of hall of fame QB Jim Kelly. Stands 6-2, 224. Very good arm. Gamer. Big-time leader in the locker room. Just a knucklehead everywhere else.
Projection: Undrafted.
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